Pakistan’s hopes for a semi-final berth in the 2023 World Cup were kept alive on Saturday with a crucial victory over New Zealand.

In a rain-affected match in Bengaluru, Fakhar Zaman’s spectacular 63-ball century propelled Pakistan to a commanding total of 200-1 in 25.3 overs. Unfortunately, rain prevented any further play, but Babar Azam’s team was comfortably ahead of the Kiwis after two rain interruptions, securing them the win. Earlier, New Zealand’s standout players, Rachin Ravindra (108) and Kane Williamson (95), put up a formidable total of 401-6, showcasing their batting prowess.

This victory was imperative for Pakistan to remain in contention for the tournament’s semi-finals. With this win, Pakistan now shares points with New Zealand and Afghanistan. However, New Zealand maintains an edge over Pakistan in Net Run Rate (NRR), with +0.398 compared to Pakistan’s newly positive +0.036 NRR after Saturday’s victory. Afghanistan, though tied on points, lags behind in NRR (-0.330). They still have two matches left (against Australia and South Africa).

As Pakistan gears up for their final group stage match against England, they not only need to secure a victory but also rely on other results to go in their favor. Let’s explore the possible scenarios for Pakistan to qualify for the tournament’s semi-finals:

Scenario 1 – Sri Lanka beats New Zealand, Pakistan beats England

When Pakistan faces England on November 11, they’ll know exactly what they need to do to secure a spot in the World Cup semi-finals. Pakistan’s hopes hinge on Sri Lanka putting up a strong performance against New Zealand in their final group match on November 9.

If Sri Lanka manages to win that game and Pakistan defeats England in their last match, Pakistan will accumulate 10 points, surpassing New Zealand by two. To bolster their position, Pakistan would also need either Australia or South Africa to defeat Afghanistan, preventing them from reaching 10 points. However, if Afghanistan wins both of their matches, Pakistan’s fate will hinge on Net Run Rate.

Scenario 2 – New Zealand beats Sri Lanka, Pakistan beats England

This scenario poses a greater challenge for Pakistan as New Zealand already holds a higher NRR. In such a case, Pakistan will hope that New Zealand’s victory margin remains as narrow as possible. If New Zealand wins by just 1 run, Pakistan will need to beat England by a margin of 130 runs or more to secure a semi-final spot.